Metals Price Analysis Dashboard

Copper prices pulled back today (Jun 4, 2026), declining 1.74% to a global price of $6.55/lb and a China spot price of ¥97,832/Ton. This downward pressure is primarily driven by profit-taking, escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions, and broader macroeconomic concerns. Furthermore, growing uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs on refined copper imports and cooling physical demand from end-users have fueled near-term market volatility. Despite these headwinds, structural demand from electrification and grid infrastructure remains robust.

Copper climbed 1.82% over the past week (May 24, 2026), closing at $6.38 per pound after swinging through a wide $6.22–$6.39 range that told two very different stories. For the first three sessions, the metal struggled. A hawkish Federal Reserve, a strong U.S. dollar, and soft Chinese economic data pushed prices down to the weekly low of $6.22 on Tuesday. Downstream buyers in China were sitting on their hands, local processors were booking furnace maintenance, and finished-goods inventories were building. Middle East tension added another layer of unease, lifting oil prices and curbing broader risk appetite. Then the market flipped. Easing U.S.–Iran geopolitical pressure weakened the dollar and lifted sentiment sharply on Wednesday, and back-to-back gains of 2.49% and 1.19% on Wednesday and Thursday erased the early losses in two sessions. By Friday, copper had settled at $6.38—near the top of the week's range and well clear of where it opened at $6.26.

The single biggest catalyst was a supply shock that rattled LME warehouses. Trafigura Group pulled more than 51,000 metric tons of copper from London Metal Exchange stocks in what traders flagged as the largest single-day drawdown in over a decade. The motive was straightforward: a wide price gap between Comex futures in New York and LME prices in London made it profitable to shift physical metal to the United States ahead of an expected tariff ruling on refined copper imports. When arbitrage windows that large open up, traders move fast, and Trafigura moved faster than most. The inventory drain tightened the global spot market almost overnight and gave bulls a concrete reason to buy. That tariff overhang is not going away soon. Copper markets have already shown how quickly AI demand, supply shocks, and deficit fears can combine to move prices, and this week added a policy-driven inventory scramble to that mix. Structural supply problems added more pressure on top. Chilean mines are running short of sulfuric acid—a key input for oxide ore leaching—which is cutting extraction rates at some of the world's largest copper operations. Ore grades at those same Chilean mines are falling, a long-term trend that shrinks output even when everything else runs smoothly. Indonesian supply is tightening too. On the demand side, AI data centers are consuming copper at a rate that is reshaping the market's long-term balance, with power infrastructure build-outs requiring vast quantities of the metal for wiring, transformers, and cooling systems. Global grid electrification is pulling in the same direction. The combination of shrinking mine output and surging tech-sector demand is structural, not seasonal, and it keeps the floor under prices firm even when macro headwinds flare up.

The week ahead carries more uncertainty than last week's strong close might suggest. The U.S. tariff ruling on refined copper imports remains the biggest live variable. A formal decision—or even a credible leak of the timeline—could trigger another round of inventory repositioning, pushing Comex premiums wider and pulling more metal off exchange warehouses. If the arbitrage window stays open, expect further LME stock drawdowns. On the macro side, Federal Reserve rhetoric will keep traders watchful. Any signal of a slower rate-cut path could lift the dollar again and cap upside, just as it did in the first half of this week. Chinese demand data will matter too. A sustained pickup in downstream buying from processors would confirm that the country's soft patch is fading rather than deepening. Absent a fresh macro shock, copper looks well-supported above $6.30, with a break toward $6.50 possible if the tariff announcement lands in a way that accelerates stateside stockpiling. The mine-supply deficit is not a short-term story, and the market is starting to price that in with more conviction.

Aluminum prices retreated to $3,663.77 per ton (Jun 4, 2026), marking a 2.51% drop as the market entered a natural correction phase following recent supply-driven spikes. In China, prices slipped to ¥24,814 per ton amid sluggish off-season demand and weak end-user orders. Downward pressure was compounded by President Trump's proclamation reducing tariffs on select aluminum derivative imports from 25% to 15%, easing near-term supply chain anxieties despite ongoing Middle East production constraints.

Aluminum gained 2.36% over the past week (May 24, 2026), closing at $3,648.36 per ton after opening at $3,564.40. The climb was steady and almost unbroken, reflecting one of the sharpest supply crunches the global market has seen in years. Prices touched the weekly high right at the close, meaning sellers never regained control during the five-day run. The headline driver was geopolitical and clear: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz trapped seaborne metal and choked off the shipping routes that Gulf producers depend on to move finished aluminum to global buyers. That narrow waterway carries a big share of regional aluminum exports, estimated at several million tons annually. What began as a shipping disruption has hardened into a structural market deficit, and that deficit is now the dominant force setting the price. Profit-taking on Monday and modest inventory buildups in Chinese storage hubs like Gongyi and Wuxi kept a lid on early gains. But buyers regained control quickly. The remaining four sessions posted gains with almost no resistance, and the week ended at its high.

The supply shock traces directly to two Gulf producers. Aluminium Bahrain, known as Alba, executed a controlled shutdown of Reduction Lines 1, 2, and 3, cutting roughly 19% of its total annual nameplate capacity of about 1.56 million tons. That one decision removed over 290,000 tons of annualized output from an already undersupplied market. Emirates Global Aluminium, the UAE's largest producer and one of the world's top five by volume, halted key pot-line operations after aerial strikes hit facilities in the region. Together, those two shutdowns removed a meaningful share of global seaborne supply in a matter of days. The timing could not have been worse. LME warehouse stocks were already under pressure before the conflict escalated, and by mid-week they had dropped to levels that analysts at Goldman Sachs and Macquarie described as critically low — below 500,000 tons, a threshold that historically signals physical tightness. Global spare smelting capacity is near zero. China's domestic producers are running at nearly full utilization, and restarts at idled smelters in Yunnan and Sichuan face a months-long lead time even with full government support. With almost no swing production left to fill the gap, the market is running on a very short rope. China offered some balance on the demand side. Domestic prices held firm at around ¥24,700–¥24,788 per ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, a narrow range that showed underlying bid support. Processing operating rates at fabricators in Guangdong and Jiangsu stayed strong. Energy storage demand — aluminum used in battery enclosures, busbars, and grid-scale infrastructure — kept Chinese buyers active through the week. That demand floor helped absorb macro headwinds, including hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve that briefly pressured dollar-denominated metals on Thursday. On the equity side, UBS upgraded Alcoa, the Pittsburgh-based smelter and refiner, citing tight supply and rising regional premiums in Europe and North America as reasons to expect sustained earnings strength through the second half of 2026. That call landed on Friday and reinforced trader confidence that the supply squeeze is not a short-term blip. Major financial institutions now model it as a durable condition lasting at least through the third quarter.

The structural case for higher prices has not softened going into next week. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to normal commercial shipping, and no credible diplomatic talks are scheduled between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council states. Alba's idled reduction lines — Lines 1 through 3 — require weeks of careful restart work even once power is restored and logistics normalize, so that capacity is not coming back fast. LME inventory leaves almost no physical buffer if demand picks up further, and any fresh drawdown below 450,000 tons would likely trigger another leg higher. The $4,000 per ton level — flagged by Goldman Sachs, Macquarie, and Citigroup as a credible near-term target — sits about 9.6% above Friday's close. Specific catalysts to watch next week include any update on Alba's restart timeline, the weekly LME inventory report due Wednesday, and the next round of Chinese industrial production data that will show whether energy storage fabricators are accelerating summer orders. A surprise diplomatic breakthrough that reopens Gulf shipping lanes would be the sharpest downside risk. A stronger dollar following any hawkish Fed commentary would also weigh on metals priced in USD. Absent those developments, dips will likely attract buyers who missed this week's move.

Cobalt prices flatlined at $28.15/lb globally and ¥420,242/Ton in China today (Jun 4, 2026), registering a 0.00% daily change. This price equilibrium reflects competing structural drivers balancing the market. Downward pressure from persistent Chinese refining oversupply and stagnant EV battery demand is directly offset by tighter supply constraints following recent export quotas implemented in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Until downstream manufacturers significantly draw down existing inventories, cobalt pricing is expected to remain firmly range-bound.

Cobalt closed the week at $28.15 per pound (May 24, 2026), with zero movement from open to close. Every session printed the same price. That kind of stillness is rare in commodity markets, and it does not mean nothing is happening. Beneath the flat line, two powerful and opposing forces have been pressing against each other with near-perfect symmetry. The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota system has choked off feedstock flows from the world's dominant cobalt-producing nation, which accounts for roughly 70% of global mine supply. On top of that, military-backed intruders occupying Eurasian Resources Group's Metalkol RTR deposit in the DRC's Kolwezi mining district added a fresh layer of supply risk midweek. At the same time, EV battery makers are pulling less cobalt than ever. They are leaning harder on lithium iron phosphate chemistry — LFP cells, which contain no cobalt at all — and drawing down only what they need rather than building stock. The result is a market locked in place, with neither side strong enough to break the other.

The supply picture is tight. The DRC's quota regime has already cut short-term shipment volumes sharply, with industry trackers reporting export permit issuance running well below year-earlier levels since the rules took effect. The Metalkol RTR situation threatens to extend that squeeze if the occupation persists; that project alone processes tens of thousands of tonnes of cobalt-bearing tailings per year and feeds a meaningful share of Eurasian Resources Group's downstream refining output. Chinese customs data released during the week showed a 47% month-on-month drop in China's unwrought cobalt exports, a figure that in most commodity markets would spark an immediate rally. Here, it did not move prices at all. That tells you how weak the demand side is. Automakers including BYD and CATL are accelerating their shift toward cobalt-free battery chemistries as a direct cost-control measure, with LFP now accounting for more than half of new EV cell production in China by volume. Indonesian Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate — MHP, a cheaper cobalt-bearing intermediate produced at projects like Huayue Nickel Cobalt in Sulawesi — gives battery producers a cost-competitive alternative feedstock and further softens spot demand for DRC material. Strict as-needed procurement by alloy and magnet makers, including aerospace-grade superalloy producers, has removed the restocking impulse that once cushioned price drops. Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations have also faded, pushing up mine financing costs globally and discouraging producers like Glencore at its Mutanda and Katanga operations from committing to output expansions. But the same macro tightness suppresses end-user capital spending, so it cuts both ways. Chinese state stockpiles held by the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration appear adequate for near-term consumption, removing urgency for fresh buying runs at current prices.

The week ahead looks likely to hold the same tension, but several named catalysts could break it. Traders should watch for any formal revision to DRC quota allocation figures, which the country's mining ministry could announce as part of its quarterly review. Any news of a resolution — or an escalation — at the Metalkol RTR site will move prices faster than any macro signal. If the occupation extends beyond two weeks, downstream processors sourcing Eurasian Resources Group material will need to find replacement tonnes, and spot premiums could spike quickly. On the demand side, June procurement windows open for several large Chinese battery producers, including CATL and EVE Energy, and their order sizes will signal whether restocking appetite has returned. A surprise uptick in LFP substitution data from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, due later in the month, could also reinforce the bearish case. The broader energy security push across critical minerals adds longer-run support for cobalt, but that argument has not yet translated into spot buying. For now, $28.15 looks like a stubborn anchor.

Gold prices ticked up a marginal 0.05% (Jun 4, 2026), reaching $4,477.96/oz globally and ¥30,328/oz in China. A firmer U.S. dollar index and rising Treasury yields suppressed broader momentum, preventing a larger rally. However, the metal found crucial downside support after the Reserve Bank of India officially denied rumors of central bank gold sales. Additionally, safe-haven demand stemming from escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran kept prices in positive territory.

Gold shed 0.92% over the past week (May 24, 2026), closing at $4,509.58 per ounce after swinging between a high of $4,551.44 and a low of $4,498.09. The week opened with genuine bullish energy—central bank buying forecasts from Goldman Sachs, drone strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, and safe-haven flows all pushed the metal to its peak on Monday. But that strength faded fast. Hotter-than-expected US inflation data forced markets to shelve hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and Treasury yields climbed in response. Non-yielding assets like gold take direct hits from rising yields, since higher bond returns make holding bullion less attractive. By Tuesday, prices had already slid to their weekly low. A brief rebound mid-week, fueled by a reported US-Iran blockade reigniting safe-haven demand, proved short-lived. Tentative progress in US-Iran peace talks then pulled the geopolitical risk premium back out of prices, and gold closed the week pinned just above $4,500—a level that now doubles as technical floor and psychological battleground.

The week's tug-of-war came down to three competing forces. First, central banks kept buying. Goldman Sachs raised its purchase forecasts, and that structural bid kept gold from a steeper drop. Second, geopolitical risk in the Middle East swung wildly. Strait of Hormuz tensions—drone strikes on UAE facilities, a reported US blockade, and stalled nuclear talks with Iran—spiked safe-haven demand early, then partly unwound when negotiators reported tentative progress. Surging oil prices tied to those same tensions fed inflation fears, which cut both ways: inflation can lift gold as a store of value, but it also pushed the Fed toward a hawkish stance, lifting yields and pressuring bullion at the same time. Third, physical demand softened at a critical moment. India hiked its gold import duty from 6% to 15%, a big policy shift that immediately crimped one of the world's largest consumer markets for the metal. JPMorgan analysts flagged fading speculative interest on top of that demand hit, calling near-term physical appetite low. On the supply side, Agnico Eagle approved a $2.4 billion expansion at its Hope Bay mine in Canada—a long-term capacity bet that signals producer confidence in high prices, even if new output won't arrive soon enough to matter this week. The Fed's hawkish signals, amplified by the inflation data mid-week, did the most damage. Markets began pricing in a rate hike rather than a cut, and that shift compressed gold's appeal relative to yield-bearing assets. The metal now sits within striking distance of its 200-day moving average near $4,500, a support level chartists watch closely because a break below it tends to trigger further selling from trend-following funds.

The week ahead hinges on two things: US inflation prints and Middle East diplomacy. If incoming Consumer Price Index data comes in hot again, the Fed's hawkish tilt will deepen, yields will climb further, and gold will face more pressure near that $4,500 floor. A cooler reading could spark a quick relief rally. On the geopolitical side, any confirmed breakthrough in US-Iran talks would drain the risk premium that has propped up prices through much of the year—potentially opening a sharper move lower. A breakdown in those talks, or a fresh escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, would do the opposite. Central bank buying remains the structural backstop. It won't reverse a macro-driven selloff on its own, but it limits how far prices fall without a decisive catalyst. Agnico Eagle's Hope Bay commitment signals that major miners expect prices to hold at elevated levels over the medium term. Short-term, though, gold looks stuck in a tight band around $4,500, waiting for either the inflation data or the diplomats to break the deadlock first.

Silver prices faced downward pressure today (Jun 4, 2026), with the global spot price settling at $73.91/oz and Chinese markets at ¥501/oz, reflecting a 1.16% decline. This contraction is primarily driven by stronger-than-expected US private payroll data and inflation concerns stemming from ongoing Middle East tensions. These combined factors bolstered hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve, pushing up bond yields and the US dollar, which collectively dampened investor appetite for non-yielding precious metals.

Silver shed 1.13% over the past week (May 24, 2026), closing at $75.51 per ounce—settling at its weekly low after touching a high of $76.61 mid-week. Two forces pulled in opposite directions all week. A strong physical supply floor pushed prices up. A resurgent US dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations pushed them down. Neither side won cleanly, but by Friday the bears had the edge. India's sudden curb on silver imports stripped away a key source of regional demand and hit sentiment early in the week. That blow landed just as the dollar was gaining ground on persistent US inflation fears and rising Treasury yields. Those conditions squeeze non-yielding metals hard and fast.

Two structural stories gave silver real underlying support, yet neither was strong enough to beat the macro headwinds. Pan American Silver's La Colorada mine in Mexico faced a local blockade that disrupted operations and flagged physical supply risks. Supply scares at major producing mines tend to firm spot prices fast. This one helped silver hold ground on Monday even as India's import curb weighed on Asian demand. China's photovoltaic sector kept buying, with industrial stockpiling for solar panel production running at a pace traders called robust. That kind of steady physical bid from manufacturing doesn't dry up overnight. Yet the week's defining driver was geopolitical volatility tied to US-Iran negotiations. Trump's decision to delay a planned military strike on Iran eased safe-haven flows on Tuesday and sent silver down. Then, when tanker movements resumed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, renewed diplomatic optimism sparked a sharp 3.39% single-day rally to $76.61. That move reversed almost entirely within 48 hours. Stalled talks and Iran's continued grip on the strait pushed energy prices back up. Inflation concern returned. Fed rate-cut expectations that had briefly crept back into the market got priced out again. Rising Treasury yields raised the cost of holding silver—a metal that pays no interest. The US Dollar Index climbed further and pressed silver toward its week-ending close. The broader pressure on industrial and energy-linked metals from supply chain realignment adds another layer of uncertainty for metals that serve dual roles as safe havens and manufacturing inputs.

The week ahead gives traders several clear catalysts to watch. Any concrete progress—or breakdown—in US-Iran diplomatic talks will move silver fast, given how sharply the metal reacted to each headline this week. OPEC policy signals matter too. Higher crude prices feed US inflation, which feeds Fed hawkishness, which pushes yields up and silver down. Upcoming US inflation prints are the biggest scheduled macro event on the calendar. A hotter-than-expected number would cement the higher-for-longer rate view and likely push silver toward fresh weekly lows below $75.51. A softer print could revive rate-cut bets and give bulls room to challenge resistance near $76.60. On the physical side, watch whether the La Colorada blockade escalates or resolves. A prolonged disruption would tighten spot supply and add a floor under prices. China's solar sector demand is unlikely to fade, but it cannot offset dollar strength at current levels on its own. Silver needs either a weaker dollar, a genuine geopolitical de-escalation, or a surprise dip in US inflation to break convincingly higher. Without one of those three, the path of least resistance stays down, and a test of the $74–$75 range looks more probable than a push back above $77.

Uranium prices rallied 3.30% today (Jun 4, 2026), lifting the global benchmark to $86.1/lb and Chinese spot prices to ¥583/lb. This upward momentum is primarily driven by Urenco USA's newly announced multi-billion-dollar expansion of its New Mexico enrichment plant. The near-50% capacity increase signals a strong Western commitment to securing domestic nuclear fuel supply chains. Additionally, exhausted mobile inventories and persistent structural supply deficits continue to force utilities into active procurement, sustaining broader market confidence.

Uranium shed 1.16% over the past week (May 24, 2026), closing at $85.10/lb after opening at $86.10/lb inside one of the tightest weekly ranges the spot market has seen in months. The $1.00/lb spread from open to close tells its own story: buyers and sellers reached an uneasy standoff, with neither side willing to commit hard capital. Prices held firm through Tuesday, then broke lower on Wednesday and flatlined at $85.10/lb for the final three sessions. Two forces drove the week: utilities pulled back from spot buying as Iran's growing enriched uranium stockpile rattled sentiment, and Lotus Resources' Kayelekera mine in Malawi ran into fresh supply trouble. The result was a slow drift lower, with $85.10/lb acting as a floor sellers could not crack. Weekly spot volumes were thin across the board, with fewer than ten transactions reported through major brokers—a sign that most buyers are sitting on their hands rather than chasing price.

The clearest supply story came from Malawi, where Lotus Resources is struggling to ramp up Kayelekera toward its stated nameplate capacity of roughly 2.4 million pounds U₃O₈ per year. Severe shortages of sulfuric acid and processing reagents have stalled ore throughput well below target rates, and no quick fix is in sight given regional logistics constraints. That kind of bottleneck shows that even mines with solid reserves can get stuck on input supply chains. Kazatomprom's output cuts in Kazakhstan—the world's largest uranium producer, responsible for about 43% of global mine supply—are already well known. The Kazakh miner's 2025 production guidance sits roughly 17% below its 2022 peak, and field-level sulfuric acid shortages are a recurring theme there too. The U.S. ban on Russian uranium imports, which took effect under the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, has removed yet another supply source from Western utilities' shopping lists. Together, these factors keep the structural deficit intact even as spot volumes stay low. On the demand side, tech firms building AI data centers are pushing baseload power needs higher at a pace that keeps nuclear fuel buyers busy with long-term contract talks. Utilities are locking in term deals rather than chasing spot, which explains the thin weekly volumes. Canada's push into AI gigafactories shows how data-center power demand is reshaping grid planning, with nuclear baseload at the center of that math. Utilities are also watching the CME Group's upcoming physically settled uranium futures contract, which has not launched yet—some buyers are waiting to see how liquidity develops before committing to spot trades. Iran's refusal to export or cut its highly enriched uranium stockpile added a risk premium that held buyers back while reminding the market that geopolitical risk is real. Shipping fears around the Strait of Hormuz added to that caution. Heavy short interest in major uranium equities early in the week also capped any rally attempt, making the flat-to-lower drift feel orderly rather than panicked.

Going into the week ahead, $85.10/lb looks like a base that holds unless a fresh supply shock forces sellers lower. The structural deficit has not changed. Kazatomprom's output targets stay below prior-year levels, Kayelekera's ramp-up will not fix itself fast, and U.S. policy keeps Russian material off the table. Demand from nuclear expansion programs—including small modular reactor projects from developers like Holtec International and NuScale—and AI-linked power needs keeps growing in the background. Watch for any update from Lotus Resources on reagent supply, which could move sentiment quickly in either direction. The CME futures launch timeline is another catalyst to track: any firm announcement could pull more institutional buyers into price discovery and break the spot market out of its holding pattern. Iran's enrichment posture stays a wild card—any Strait of Hormuz flare-up could tighten sentiment fast. Absent a big headline, expect prices to hold in the $85–$87/lb band, with cautious utilities returning to spot once the geopolitical fog clears enough to justify the trade.

Lithium prices extended their decline to $24.84 per kilogram (Jun 4, 2026), reflecting a 4.40% drop as market sentiment weakened. The global benchmark, pressured alongside the Chinese price of ¥168,250 per tonne, fell primarily due to mounting supply concerns. Record-high lithium carbonate warehouse warrants on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange signaled bloated inventory levels. Additionally, fears of potential mine restarts and higher-than-expected hidden stockpiles outweighed previous supply disruptions, keeping immediate downward pressure on the battery metal.

Lithium dropped 6.97% over the past week (May 24, 2026), closing at $26.20 per kg after opening at $28.16. That marked the sharpest weekly loss in recent months. The sell-off started as modest profit-taking on Monday but gathered force midweek when a change in inventory tracking methods exposed hidden trader stockpiles that few market participants knew existed. That single revelation flipped the prevailing narrative fast. For months, traders had assumed global reserves were tight and the market was heading toward a supply deficit. When those undisclosed stockpiles surfaced — estimated by several desk analysts at tens of thousands of tonnes of battery-grade material — the bullish case cracked. Bearish sentiment swept through spot markets, and Chinese benchmark prices fell from about ¥191,500 per ton at the start of the week to ¥178,000 by the close, a drop of roughly 7%. Sellers held the upper hand in every session but one. The week's average price landed at $26.74 per kg, well below the opening print. Buyers stepped back and waited to see how much fresh supply was actually heading to market.

The inventory shock alone would have dragged prices lower. What made this week worse for bulls was the wave of supply news that followed. Mineral Resources confirmed the restart of its Bald Hill hard rock mine in Western Australia, a project idled during the long lithium price downturn that began in late 2022. Core Lithium revived operations at its Finniss project in the Northern Territory, a mine that had been on care-and-maintenance since early 2024. Together, those two Australian restarts signal a meaningful jump in hard rock spodumene concentrate output over the coming quarters. SQM, the Chilean state-linked giant that controls some of the lowest-cost brine operations in the Atacama Desert, then raised its full-year lithium carbonate shipment forecast by roughly 8%, signaling South American supply would run well above what the market had penciled in. Zimbabwe added to the pressure by easing its ban on raw mineral exports and opening fresh spodumene concentrate export quotas to approved buyers for the first time since late 2023. Spot premiums for battery-grade lithium hydroxide began cooling almost immediately after that announcement. Each development, taken alone, might have been absorbed without a sharp move. Together, they hit a market already rattled by the inventory data and drove prices to a weekly low of $26.19, down more than 7% from Monday's open. None of this erased the demand story. AI data centers are consuming more energy storage capacity at a pace that keeps battery-grade lithium demand firm, and global EV sales continue to grow. But when supply expands faster than the market expects, even strong demand cannot stop a correction.

Next week, traders will watch two specific catalysts. First, Chinese port arrival data for Australian and Zimbabwean spodumene concentrate will tell the market how quickly the new supply is actually moving. Bald Hill and Finniss are restarting rather than running at full capacity, and mine ramp-ups routinely take longer than announced timelines suggest. If port arrivals stay modest and battery-cell makers in Jiangsu and Guangdong keep buying at current rates, prices could find a floor near $26.00 and stabilize. A clean break below that level would signal that traders are pricing in a faster supply recovery than most analysts currently project. Second, SQM is due to release updated monthly shipment figures, and any upward revision would add fresh selling pressure. On the upside, a resumption of inventory drawdowns at Chinese warehouses — or a pullback in producer guidance from either SQM or Albemarle — could push prices back toward $28.00. Clean energy investment flows remain strong globally, which keeps the long-term demand floor intact, but the short-term story belongs entirely to supply and how fast those restarted mines can deliver physical tonnes to end buyers.

Brent crude prices slipped 1.78% to $94.64 /Bbl globally and ¥641 /Bbl in China (Jun 4, 2026). This downward movement is primarily driven by a renewed ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. The diplomatic progress eased geopolitical fears, raising hopes for broader de-escalation and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, this bearish momentum was partially cushioned by a substantial 8-million-barrel drop in U.S. commercial crude inventories, highlighting robust underlying demand.

Brent Crude dropped 5.06% over the past week (May 24, 2026), closing at $103.71 per barrel. Prices touched a high of $110.85 early in the period before sliding to a weekly low of $102.74—a $8.11 range that captured the full force of a rapidly shifting geopolitical story. A risk premium that had kept prices high for weeks deflated fast once traders began pricing in a real US-Iran ceasefire. President Trump paused planned military strikes on Iran and then signaled that peace talks were moving toward a resolution, pulling the central fear off the table: a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global seaborne oil passes each day. That single shift drove the week's most violent session—a 7.18% single-day plunge on Wednesday—and set the tone for further losses through Friday. Drone strikes on a UAE nuclear facility near Abu Dhabi had stoked early-week buying and pushed prices briefly above $110. Those gains evaporated once the diplomatic story took hold and algo-driven momentum reversed course hard.

The selloff was not driven by one force alone. On the demand side, Chinese state refiners—including Sinopec and PetroChina—cut processing runs sharply at key coastal refineries in Shandong and Zhejiang provinces, drawing on domestic storage rather than paying $109-plus per barrel for imported Saudi and Iraqi grades. Commercial crude stocks at Shandong independent refiners fell roughly 4% week-on-week, a sign that China's processors preferred to run down their own tanks before buying at spot. That behavior signals real demand destruction, not a short-term pause. A surge in U.S. crude exports, which topped 4.8 million barrels per day according to EIA weekly data, added more supply to a market already adjusting its risk view. Washington's 30-day sanctions waiver on Russian Urals and ESPO-blend seaborne oil gave Asian buyers another cheaper source to draw on, easing the supply panic that drone strikes had briefly revived. These forces piled pressure on a market running hot on fear. Yet the physical market tells a more complex story. Wood Mackenzie and the International Energy Agency both warned that global commercial stockpiles remain under serious strain, with OECD inventories running roughly 120 million barrels below their five-year seasonal average. Shut-in Middle Eastern output from fields in Libya and Iraq's Kirkuk region has left the world with a smaller buffer than the headline price drop suggests. Chinese EV adoption accelerating on the back of high oil prices adds a structural demand headwind that Beijing's refiners are clearly weighing too. Backwardation—where near-term contracts trade above future ones, a sign that supply is tighter today than the market expects tomorrow—held throughout the week across the Brent forward curve, a reminder that the market is not as loose as the price move implies.

The week ahead hinges on one question: does a formal US-Iran agreement get signed? If talks in Oman or Geneva collapse or stall, the Strait of Hormuz blockade risk snaps back and prices could recover sharply toward $108-$110, erasing most of this week's losses in days. A confirmed ceasefire deal would likely push Brent toward the $100 floor, where stretched inventories and OPEC+'s roughly 3.2 million barrels per day of spare capacity get tested in real time. Saudi Aramco's official selling prices for July, due out in early June, will give a read on how Riyadh views near-term demand. Chinese refinery run data from the National Bureau of Statistics will also matter—if Sinopec and its peers keep runs low and continue drawing from storage at Zhoushan and Huangdao, import demand stays weak and the demand-side drag extends into June. Watch U.S. export volumes closely too. Any pullback from the 4.8 million barrel-per-day pace removes one of the key offsets that kept prices from falling further this week. The IEA's inventory warnings mean a supply shock could still arrive fast if diplomacy fails and Middle Eastern output stays shut in. Expect wide daily swings. Until a deal is confirmed or definitively falls apart, Brent is likely to stay volatile in the $100-$108 range.

Global WTI Crude prices slid -2.22% to $92.44/Bbl today (Jun 4, 2026), with China benchmarks tracking lower at ¥626/Bbl. The primary driver of this sell-off is a newly announced ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which sharply reduced geopolitical risk premiums. This diplomatic de-escalation overshadowed bullish domestic supply data, specifically a massive 8-million-barrel EIA inventory drop driven by robust refinery demand. Traders are currently prioritizing Middle Eastern stability over tightening physical oil stockpiles.

WTI Crude shed 7.92% over the past week (May 24, 2026), closing at $96.81 per barrel after opening at a high of $105.13. That $8.32 round-trip ranks among the sharpest weekly reversals crude has seen in years. The week split into two distinct halves. Early sessions held prices up on real supply fear: a drone strike on a UAE nuclear facility and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had squeezed physical barrels hard enough to push the benchmark to its weekly ceiling. Then President Trump suspended planned U.S. military strikes against Iran and announced peace talks. The geopolitical risk premium that had been propping up prices vanished almost overnight. What followed was a cascade of bearish catalysts driving crude to a weekly floor of $96.37. Every dollar of the conflict-driven markup was erased, and then some. The U.S. average retail equivalent settled near $99.70 per barrel across the week, showing just how fast sentiment swung from scarcity panic to supply relief.

The sell-off had several distinct engines beyond the diplomatic pivot. The U.S. government released a combined 19.9 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — the massive salt cavern complexes along the Gulf Coast — flooding domestic supply at a moment when traders were already pricing in a softer backdrop. That single policy move hit the market twice. It added supply directly, and it signaled that Washington was ready to cap any sustained price spike. On the demand side, the picture was equally grim. The U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its global consumption forecast. It pointed to high global bond yields that raise borrowing costs, slow industrial activity, and cut fuel demand. That top-down concern found confirmation in specific buyer behavior: Sinopec and other major Asian refiners slashed crude import volumes, drawing instead from onshore storage tanks. When the world's largest refining block pulls back on spot purchases, demand destruction moves from theory to fact. The Strait of Hormuz technically stayed disrupted through the week's end. But tanker traffic had begun creeping back through the waterway as diplomatic talks moved forward, shrinking the effective supply premium day by day. By Thursday and Friday, the market was trading almost entirely on the outlook for a signed U.S.-Iran agreement. That shift left crude with no floor support each time a peace-talk headline crossed the wire.

The coming week hinges on one question: does the U.S.-Iran deal get formally signed, or does it stall? Negotiators have flagged a sticking point around Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles. Any breakdown in talks could quickly revive the risk premium that evaporated this week. A confirmed agreement, on the other hand, would likely clear the path for Iranian barrels to re-enter global markets more freely. That would add further supply pressure on top of SPR releases already in the pipeline. Watch the EIA's weekly inventory report closely. After two consecutive weeks of enormous SPR drawdowns, the pace of releases will tell traders whether Washington plans to keep leaning on stored supply or pull back. Macro forces also bear watching. If bond yields stay high, the EIA demand downgrade could deepen, and Asian refinery run rates may fall further. WTI sits near $96-97, a level that offers little technical cushion if the diplomatic calendar tips bearish. A failed negotiation, a new Hormuz incident, or a surprise inventory draw could bounce prices sharply. A signed deal paired with soft Asian demand data could push crude toward the low $90s before buyers step back in.

Natural gas prices surged 6.34% to $3.37/MMBtu globally today (Jun 4, 2026), reflecting tightening market fundamentals. The rally is primarily driven by a lower-than-expected US EIA storage build of 95 Bcf, trailing historical averages. Additionally, hotter weather forecasts are elevating domestic cooling demand. Internationally, an ongoing tanker blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is restricting Middle Eastern exports, driving global reliance on US LNG. Concurrently, Chinese regional prices sit at ¥23/MMBtu.

Natural gas climbed 4.27% over the past week (May 17, 2026), closing at the week's high of $2.96/MMBtu after holding firm at a floor of $2.84/MMBtu early in the period. The rally was far from smooth — prices swung up, pulled back sharply mid-week, then pushed higher again to end at the top of the range. The single biggest catalyst was the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report, which showed an 85 Bcf injection. That came in below the 87 Bcf market consensus, and traders read it as a sign that oversupply fears were overdone. Total U.S. inventories still sit about 140 Bcf above the five-year average, so the market is not tight by any historical measure — but the smaller-than-expected build was enough to flip sentiment bullish and hold it there through the end of the week. China's benchmark tracked the move, rising from ¥19/MMBtu to settle at ¥20/MMBtu, showing that the demand story was global, not just a domestic U.S. dynamic.

The week's price action reflected a tug-of-war between structural supply cuts and a flood of associated gas out of the Permian Basin. On the bullish side, EQT — one of the country's largest natural gas producers — curtailed output to help offset the rising volumes of gas that come as a byproduct of oil drilling in the Permian. Those associated gas volumes, combined with severe pipeline takeaway constraints in West Texas, are pushing regional spot prices sharply lower even as the national benchmark rises. That disconnect points to a market under the surface that is more fragmented than the headline number suggests. Seasonal maintenance at the Freeport and Cameron LNG facilities briefly cut export feedgas demand, adding a short-term bearish weight mid-week. Yet a partial restart of a liquefaction train at Freeport helped steady expectations for export demand heading into summer. Corpus Christi capacity expansions are also moving forward, which supports the structural demand floor for U.S. gas over the medium term. A hot U.S. Producer Price Index reading added broad energy repricing pressure, and Middle Eastern shipping disruptions continued to tighten global LNG supply routes — keeping European and Asian spot prices firm and making U.S. export cargoes more competitive. Power demand from data centers, which consume gas-fired electricity around the clock, added another layer of structural support that short-sellers had to price in before building any large positions. France's push to phase out fossil fuels by 2050 is a reminder of how the long-term demand picture for gas in Europe is shifting, even as short-term buying remains strong. Meanwhile, low-carbon power projects like TeraWulf's nuclear-backed bitcoin mining operations reflect broader competition for baseload electricity — a trend that keeps pressure on gas-fired generators to stay price-competitive.

The week ahead turns on two things: weather and LNG feedgas recovery. Early summer heat forecasts have traders watching power burn data closely. A stretch of above-normal temperatures across the South and Midwest would pull gas demand higher fast, tightening the storage surplus before the traditional injection season peaks. If maintenance at Freeport and Cameron wraps up on schedule, feedgas flows should rebound, adding another layer of demand that was missing for much of this past week. On the supply side, Permian associated gas growth is not going away, and pipeline bottlenecks will keep depressing regional prices in West Texas even if the national benchmark holds firm. The key risk to the upside is a return to mild weather, which would slow cooling demand and let inventories build faster than expected. $3.00/MMBtu is the next round-number test. A clean break above it on strong storage and weather data would open the door to further gains. A miss on either front, and $2.84 comes back into play quickly.